Australians have been warned to “prepare for a shift from one extreme to the other”, with La Nina expected to be replaced with “record-challenging heat” when it comes to an end next year.
La Nina is finally on its way out after three years of destructive weather conditions – but Australians have been warned the reprieve will likely be short lived with a “shift from one extreme to the other” on the cards.
Sky News Australia Meteorologist Rob Sharpe on Tuesday said the phenomenon would probably end in late January or February, leading to neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
“For the last three years La Nina has been driving rain and flooding into eastern Australia,” he said.
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“The end is near but it’s not here yet. Flooding is still an elevated risk for eastern Australia.
“The dams are full, the ground is wetter than usual and there is still potential for heavy rainfall to cause big floods.”
While many will be excited by the departure of La Nina, Mr Sharpe warned that “if history repeats itself” neutral conditions would be “short lived”.
“Of the nine observed double and triple La Nina events since 1900, six have been immediately followed by El Nino years and only three have been followed by neutral years,” he said.
“From looking through the data, I’ve also found a small relationship between an early end to La Nina, like we’re experiencing, and El Nino forming in the following year.
“And it’s not just history suggesting El Nino is on its way but global forecast models are suggesting the same thing.”
Mr Sharpe gave El Nino a 65 per cent chance of occurring next year, while he rated neutral conditions and another La Nina event at 30 per cent and five per cent respectively.
While La Nina increases the chance of above average rainfall, El Nino leads to warmer temperatures, with Mr Sharpe warning Australia’s next spring and summer will “look very different”.
“Climate change and El Nino should join forces to produce record-challenging heat,” he said.
“Much of the country will be drier than usual, with an increased fire threat and droughts are likely to begin in some areas but dams should help communities get through until at least the end of next year.
“Essentially, it’s time to prepare for a shift from one extreme to the other.”
Heat â˜€ï¸ is building across southern Australia, with temperatures soaring into the high 30s and low 40s🌡ï¸
Heatwave warnings are current for WA/SA/Vic/Tas as maximum and minimums climb 8 to 16c above average.
Elevated Fire Dangers🔥 also forecast
Latest https://t.co/PkA3NI45yV pic.twitter.com/lVIlgC9u4Y
Mr Sharpe’s warning comes as heat builds across southern Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology on Monday flagged temperatures were soaring into the high 30s and low 40s, with heatwave warnings in place for Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.
In some places, the mercury has hit eight to 16C above maximum and minimum average temperatures, leading to elevated fire dangers being forecast.
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