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A new report launched today at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2023 shows how “early mover” countries can accelerate the food systems transformation.
The report, Food, Nature and Health Transitions – Repeatable Country Models, offers insights into the actions and investments that can accelerate a country’s transition towards food systems that deliver a stronger economy, better livelihoods for a more inclusive set of people, greater nutritional security and improved health, while causing a lower impact on the climate and nature.
“Transforming food systems provide healthy and nutritious diets and dignified jobs for farmers and producers. This report shows how economic development with environment protection supports communities in climate adaption and mitigation efforts,” said Gim Huay Neo, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum’s Centre for Nature and Climate.
The report, written in collaboration with Bain & Company, presents “repeatable models” from seven “early mover” countries in Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe whose performance has been comparatively strong and whose examples and lessons are widely relevant. Their stories of transformation identify common, repeatable elements, including the most critical actions and investments for driving change and how they should be coordinated.
“Depending on the country context, different pathways could be adopted to transform our agrifood systems for improved food security and nutrition and assuring sustainability,” said Maximo Torero Cullen, Chief Economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). “Scaling up climate resilience and strengthening our food environment to promote healthy diets are two key interventions with positive impacts on food security, nature and health.”
“When food fails, everything fails,” added Geraldine Matchett, Co-Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of Royal DSM, and Co-Chair of the CEO Alliance on Food, Nature and Health. “We must work to transform our food systems to be resilient, sustainable and healthy.”
A number of countries, including Ghana, India and Viet Nam, have been able to evolve their food systems to improve a broader set of outcomes by unlocking the potential of small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those that are farmer-allied and operating in local food chains.
Countries can also use innovation to improve productivity, sustainability and nutritional outcomes, as demonstrated in Algeria, which has improved food security in the face of significant constraints on water availability, while Viet Nam has sustainably intensified its rice production.
Farmers are more likely to adopt new practices if the economics work in their favour, according to the report, but making this happen requires action from many stakeholders. Examples in Canada and New Zealand illustrate how to scale adoption of nature-positive and climate-smart food production, particularly focusing on the case for an economic advantage for producers.
Each of the “early mover” country profiles in the report show how multiple actors and concurrent levers, across sectors, interact and coordinate to enable large-scale transformation over time. Collectively, they demonstrate the potential for these levers – if applied in tandem and with greater urgency – to accelerate country-led food systems transformation.
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Geopolitical instability is exacerbating the risk of catastrophic cyberattacks, according to the Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2023 report, which was launched today at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2023 in Davos. Over 93% of cybersecurity experts and 86% of business leaders believe “a far-reaching, catastrophic cyber event is likely in the next two years” and there is a critical skills gap that is threatening societies and key infrastructure.
The Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2023 findings were based on surveys, workshops and interviews with over 300 experts and C-suite executives. Half of the companies surveyed said the current landscape is making them re-evaluate the countries in which their organization does business.
Despite challenges, organizations are improving cyber resilience, one of the key priorities of the World Economic Forum’s Centre for Cybersecurity. The report, written in collaboration with Accenture, says that awareness and preparation will help organizations balance the value of new technology against the cyber risk that comes with it.
The report highlights the need to address the shortage of talent and skilled experts. Some 34% of cybersecurity experts said they lacked some skills in their team, with 14% saying they lacked critical skills. The problem is more pronounced in key sectors such as energy utilities, where nearly 25% of cybersecurity experts said they lacked the necessary critical skills to protect their organizations’ operations. Expanding the cybersecurity talent pool is needed to solve this problem. Several successful cybersecurity skills programmes are under way around the world, but many have difficulty scaling to large numbers. Greater cross-industry collaboration and public-private is needed to overcome this.
Geopolitics is reshaping the legal, regulatory and technological environment. “As global instability increases cyber risk, this report calls for a renewed focus on cooperation. All stakeholders from public and private sectors who are responsible for our common digital infrastructure must work together to build security, resilience and trust,” said Jeremy Jurgens, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.
Perspectives from cybersecurity experts and business leaders
On awareness:
“The research shows that business leaders are now more aware of their organizations’ cyber risks, however, there is the need to go further to assessing and translating the business risk into actionable next steps across the entire organization. Long-term cyber resilience requires a closely coordinated team effort across the C-suite to gain a clearer view of the cyber risks so security can be embedded in all strategic business priorities and protect the digital core. As our digitally connected world expands, now is the time to build cyber resilient businesses for customers, employees and supply chain partners.”
Paolo Dal Cin, Global Lead, Accenture Security
On addressing the skills gap:
“The threat landscape continues to expand and evolve with cyber adversaries targeting organizations of all sizes, locations and industries around the world. The disruption of operations or services and the compromise of data due to cyberattacks against the backdrop of a global skills gap places every individual, organization and even nation at risk. When we work together to encourage best practices we see greater progress in the fight against cybercrime. Shared data and trusted global partnerships can enable more effective responses and better predict future attack strategies to deter adversary efforts.”
Ken Xie, Founder, Chairman of the Board and CEO, Fortinet
On regulation:
Leaders are now more likely than one year ago to see data privacy laws and cybersecurity regulations as an effective tool for reducing cyber risks across a sector. But speed is an issue.
“Standardization can take 18 months but a cyberattack takes seconds. The speed at which emerging technologies are implemented often outpaces our ability to build security measures around them. We need to go beyond simple compliance with regulations if organizations are to be cyber-resilient.”
Hoda Al Khzaimi, Director, Centre for Cybersecurity, Founder and Director EMARTSEC, New York University (NYU), Abu Dhabi
On investing in cybersecurity:
According to the report, the speed at which new technologies are implemented means that real and lasting cyber resilience comes from embedding cybersecurity into an organization’s culture and decision-making processes.
“Cyber attackers don’t rest with macro-economic challenges, they double down on them. There is no path to success that is not heavily driven by AI and automation. As companies accelerate their digital transformation journeys, the time for reimagining and investing in cybersecurity architectures – intelligent platforms – is now. Boards and the C-suite must embrace a strategy whereby cybersecurity is deeply embedded across the enterprise from operations to innovation. Only then will organizations be able to create a state of resilience that enables, not inhibits, their strategic business outcomes.”
Nikesh Arora, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Palo Alto Networks
A lingering, vexing challenge is how to price cybersecurity. “Board members are interested in risk, opportunities and investment in cost,” said one survey respondent. “We need to better respond to the question, ‘What is the return?’ How do I know this is a good investment across the myriad of things that I could potentially be invested in? How can we improve at making effective metrics to help boards make better-informed decisions?”
Cybersecurity is also influencing strategic business decisions, with 50% of participants in the Cybersecurity Outlook 2023 research saying that cybersecurity was a consideration when they evaluated which countries in which to invest and do business.
Building a cyber-resilient organization:
Compared with last year, the report found that board-level executives are more likely to prioritize cyber risk and are more aware of their own role in addressing it. This has led to increased interaction with cybersecurity leaders, “cyber leaders, business leaders and boards of directors are now communicating more directly and more often”. The bad news is that they “continue to speak different languages”.
All too often, when security and business leaders discuss cybersecurity, the rapidly evolving contours of cyber-risks get lost in translation. Chief information security officers may fail to convey the complex data they have gathered – on risk points, threat actors, mapping of criminal campaigns – into an accessible story that results in specific mitigating actions in their organizations.
Instead, they need to tell stories that align with their corporate and business priorities. “Boards should be presented with a cyber posture that resonates with customers’ and authorities’ expectations and helps address sectorial ecosystem challenges,” said Christophe Blassiau, Senior Vice-President, Cybersecurity & Global Chief Information Security Officer, Schneider Electric.
Despite this challenge, the report found the disconnect between cybersecurity managers and business executive has begun to close. Both increasingly perceive the elevated degree of risk exposure and are allocating more resources to coordinate responses in an effective manner. The priority today is on speed.
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Adoption of connected devices during the pandemic led to a dramatic increase in cyberattacks. According to a new report launched today at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2023, if left unchecked, the cost of cyberattacks will continue to rise, threatening a fragile global economy.
The report, The State of the Connected World 2023 edition, a collaboration of the World Economic Forum with the Council on the Connected World, says the immediate threats can be mitigated through robust security protocols and governance through public-private cooperation.
The State of the Connected World is theonly global report that tracks and quantifies governance gaps for the universe of connected devices, known as the internet of things (IoT). The report surveyed 270 experts around the world to understand the state of play and establish clear priorities for technology governance.
“At a time when the global economy is fragile, we have the necessary tools to reduce at least one of the major threats to the global economy – cyberattacks,” said Jeff Merritt, Head of Urban Transformation, World Economic Forum. “The State of the Connected World report is a call to action for protecting against cybercrimes, which would also improve individual security and protect small and medium-sized business, transit systems, utilities – everything that relies on connected devices.”
“Our increasingly connected existence brings with it vulnerabilities that can be exploited by malicious actors,” said Akshay Joshi, Head of Industry and Partnerships, Centre for Cybersecurity, World Economic Forum. “Despite calls for embedding cybersecurity by design, the low level of confidence in the security of connected devices expressed by experts in this report is a testament to the fact that we still have a long way to go in terms of realizing trust in the technology we use.”
The report calls for increased consumer education through digital literacy campaigns, standardization practices of cybersecurity measures, prioritizing security by design and default (as opposed to reacting after the fact) and developing more agile policies to better address the quick-changing landscape of cybersecurity.
“We find ourselves at an inflection point this year with a number of global forces putting downward pressure on the economy,” said Madeline Carr, Professor of Global Politics and Cyber Security, Department of Computer Science, University College London. “It is essential that cybersecurity challenges are not left unchecked to further exacerbate this but are taken seriously as an integrated element of a thriving global economy.”
What other experts are saying:
“Open standards in technology have always led to greater innovation and greater consumer confidence. This year’s report from the Forum really emphasizes the importance of that direction. We’re very pleased to see the focus on privacy and security as a key priority. Solving for these ensures the greatest adoption of IoT, and the greatest likelihood of landing on valuable solutions for consumers in the ever-growing connected world.”Tobin Richardson, President and CEO, Connectivity Standards Alliance
“Planned spending on a security programme costs less than unplanned spending by 10 to 100 times, so it really makes sense now to evaluate and redouble your efforts to attain and maintain a mature programme. The year 2023 is predicted to deliver a perfect storm – from expected challenging economic conditions, ransomware up over 30% from last year, cyber insurance rates dramatically rising, coverage lowering, a severe skill and staff shortage, massive growth in vulnerable IoT connected devices and security products becoming the breach vector. Now is the time to redouble your focus on your security posture.” Peter Nicoletti, Field Chief Information Security Officer of the Americas, Check Point Software Technologies
“At Schneider Electric, we envision a fully connected, net-zero world which is more electrified, digitized and sustainable for future generations. To realize this future, businesses, organizations and governments must work together to address challenges such as cybersecurity, open standards and accessibility. I’m proud of our work with these stakeholders and the World Economic Forum and commit to continued vigilance to make the needed progress.” Scott Harden, Chief Technology Officer, Innovation, Schneider Electric
“As the world gets more connected, complex and at times unpredictable, it is critical to drive and govern the change in a way that we not only address and mitigate risks but also emphasize the positive impact that connected technology brings.” Anton Kotov, Chief Digital and Strategy Officer, ABB Electrification, ABB
“The ongoing advancement of emerging technologies highlights the importance of establishing strong governance to ensure safe and secure use of the technology. Security, privacy, trust and interoperability among IoT devices are serious issues that need to be addressed to accelerate IoT adoption and embrace a connected world. This can be achieved through collective action from the international community and by establishment of public-private partnerships. The 2023 report on the state of the connected world highlights the current gaps in governance and paves the path to address the associated risks for the benefit of humankind.” Mariam Nouh,Vice-President of Economies of the Future Sector, King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST)
“In order to ensure that connected devices and related technologies are accessible and beneficial for all members of society, adaptive and sustainable governance is needed for multistakeholders to expand the boundaries of their respective scope of works, to share risk and co-invest in the digital infrastructure together.” Fanyu Lin, CEO, Fluxus
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Global growth is slowing sharply in the face of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.
Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development—such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, or escalating geopolitical tensions—could push the global economy into recession. This would mark the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade.
The global economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. The sharp downturn in growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.
Over the next two years, per-capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8%—a full percentage point lower than the 2010-2019 average. In Sub-Saharan Africa—which accounts for about 60% of the world’s extreme poor—growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.
“The crisis facing development is intensifying as the global growth outlook deteriorates,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Emerging and developing countries are facing a multi-year period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment as global capital is absorbed by advanced economies faced with extremely high government debt levels and rising interest rates. Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already-devastating reversals in education, health, poverty, and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change.”
Growth in advanced economies is projected to slow from 2.5% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023. Over the past two decades, slowdowns of this scale have foreshadowed a global recession. In the United States, growth is forecast to fall to 0.5% in 2023—1.9 percentage points below previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970. In 2023, euro-area growth is expected at zero percent—a downward revision of 1.9 percentage points. In China, growth is projected at 4.3% in 2023—0.9 percentage point below previous forecasts.
Excluding China, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, reflecting significantly weaker external demand compounded by high inflation, currency depreciation, tighter financing conditions, and other domestic headwinds.
By the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging and developing economies will be roughly 6% below levels expected before the pandemic. Although global inflation is expected to moderate, it will remain above pre-pandemic levels.
The report offers the first comprehensive assessment of the medium-term outlook for investment growth in emerging market and developing economies. Over the 2022-2024 period, gross investment in these economies is likely to grow by about 3.5% on average—less than half the rate that prevailed in the previous two decades. The report lays out a menu of options for policy makers to accelerate investment growth.
“Subdued investment is a serious concern because it is associated with weak productivity and trade and dampens overall economic prospects. Without strong and sustained investment growth, it is simply impossible to make meaningful progress in achieving broader development and climate-related goals,” said Ayhan Kose,Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “National policies to boost investment growth need to be tailored to country circumstances but they always start with establishing sound fiscal and monetary policy frameworks and undertaking comprehensive reforms in the investment climate.”
The report also sheds light on the dilemma of 37 small states—countries with a population of 1.5 million or less. These states suffered a sharper COVID-19 recession and a much weaker rebound than other economies, partly because of prolonged disruptions to tourism. In 2020, economic output in small states fell by more than 11%— seven times the decline in other emerging and developing economies. The report finds that small states often experience disaster-related losses that average roughly 5% of GDP per year. This creates severe obstacles to economic development.
Policymakers in small states can improve long-term growth prospects by bolstering resilience to climate change, fostering effective economic diversification, and improving government efficiency. The report calls upon the global community to assist small states by maintaining the flow of official assistance to support climate-change adaptation and help restore debt sustainability.
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