First ODI: Black Caps v Pakistan
Where: Karachi National Stadium; When: Monday, 10.30pm [NZ time]
Live coverage: Sky Sport 1
ANALYSIS: The Black Caps’ bowling attack is set to be the main area of intrigue as they build towards the Cricket World Cup in India later this year, a journey that starts with three ODIs in Pakistan this week.
Mitchell Santner’s name can be written down in ink as their left-arm spinner, but where he bats will be a key consideration.
Trent Boult is the other bowler whose name can be jotted down immediately, though his newfound status as a free agent means there has to be a degree of uncertainty.
That coach Gary Stead and fellow selector Gavin Larsen have considered 11 seamers for the series in Pakistan and India this month without calling on another left-arm option suggests he is locked in.
Stead and Larsen’s plans for the coming fortnight were dealt two blows last week, first when Adam Milne was ruled out due to preparation concerns and a fresh side strain, then when Matt Henry suffered an abdominal injury in the drawn test series.
That has left Tim Southee, Lockie Ferguson, Blair Tickner (who replaced Milne), Doug Bracewell (who replaced Henry) and Henry Shipley, called up in part for his all-round potential, as the seam options present in Pakistan.
Jacob Duffy is due to replace Southee when the team heads to India next week, having been unable to travel earlier after being sidelined with Covid-19.
Kyle Jamieson is the other seam bowler in the mix, but he will play no part in either series as he is focusing on returning from a back injury suffered last June with the Auckland Aces in the Twenty20 Super Smash.
How many of those pace bowlers will make the cut when the World Cup squad is named later this year?
It would appear that at most there will be five, with Bracewell, Duffy, Milne, Ben Sears (who was noted to be ruled out due to injury when Bracewell was called up) and Tickner those likely to be on the outside looking in.
Duffy and Tickner’s only ODIs to date have been against minnows Ireland, Netherlands and Scotland and while Milne played his first ODIs in five years against India in November, his fresh injury woes this month have denied him a much-needed chance to further press his case.
Ferguson and Henry joined Boult in forming the Black Caps’ seam attack at the last World Cup in 2019 and it would be a shock if either player missed out this year.
Southee was the spare seamer in that campaign, having fallen out of the first-choice XI the previous summer, but he has evolved his white-ball game since then.
Jamieson debuted in early 2020 and while he has only played eight ODIs, he impressed in them much like he has in test cricket. He should be back in action by the time the Black Caps host Sri Lanka at the end of March in their last remaining home series before the World Cup, but those could be the only matches he plays before the final squad is chosen.
The Black Caps’ next ODI assignment after that is five matches in Pakistan and April and May, where they are expected to be without Indian Premier League players, such as Jamieson.
Then come four ODIs in England and three in Bangladesh in September and October, but the World Cup squad is likely to be confirmed before that, as players embark on what could end up being a four-month trip.
Could all five of Boult, Ferguson, Henry, Southee and Jamieson make the cut?
It’s possible, but it’s just as possible one of those big names might not be on the plane, depending on how a balance is struck between all-rounders, spinners and seamers.
Three spinners are set to be included, as was the case the last time the World Cup was played in India, in 2011, and Ish Sodhi and Michael Bracewell are close to being certainties alongside Santner.
They are the only spinners to have played for New Zealand since the last World Cup, though Glenn Phillips has been turned to for some off spin at times. If he is able to be relied upon as a bowling option, Bracewell’s importance might lessen, and the all-rounder does still have a bit to prove against major opposition.
If Bracewell does make it, he could also serve as a backup top six batter, potentially freeing up a place elsewhere. More likely there will be six batters, a spare, three spinners including all-rounders Santner and Bracewell, and five seamers.
But will any of those seamers also be all-rounders? Colin de Grandhomme has retired and Jimmy Neesham is unavailable this month as he is playing in the new T20 competition in the United Arab Emirates, alongside Boult. Neesham could yet have a part to play, and could potentially also take the spare batting slot, though his form took a dive in the back half of 2022.
The need to look beyond those two has led to the selection of Shipley, though he is more of a bowler who bats, and has mostly showcased that side of his game in first-class cricket. Stead has indicated the Canterbury product will get a chance over the next six matches and he could be a big mover if he impresses.
Jamieson is the only other seamer who would look comfortable at No 8, though the use of a Bracewell-Santner spin tandem or the inclusion of Neesham would make that a non-issue.
All-rounders create options and Daryl Mitchell can’t be forgotten in this conversation, having played a starring role with the ball in the Black Caps’ last ODI, after 12 previous matches where he was hardly called on.
If nothing else, choosing five starters from Michael Bracewell, Santner, Sodhi, Boult, Ferguson, Henry, Jamieson and Southee would throw up some big decisions.
As far as batting is concerned, the Black Caps head into the Pakistan series having used the same top six in their last four matches: Finn Allen, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Tom Latham, Mitchell and Phillips.
Henry Nicholls is in Pakistan with them, while Mark Chapman is set to replace Williamson when the team heads to India, which suggests they are next in line and Will Young is on the edge of the selection frame.
While veteran opener Martin Guptill has expressed a desire to remain available for selection despite giving back his NZ Cricket contract, the fact that he was dropped beforehand makes a return hard to envisage.
The big question mark is the fact that Allen, Mitchell and Phillips have played a combined total of 25 ODI innings, so while they have been backed of late, they don’t have track records to fall back on.
Allen, Conway, Williamson and Phillips have IPL deals, so other batters should get a chance to make their case on the second tour of Pakistan.
Kane Williamson (c), Tom Latham (vc), Finn Allen, Doug Bracewell, Michael Bracewell, Devon Conway, Lockie Ferguson, Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner, Henry Shipley, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee, Blair Tickner.
Mark Chapman and Jacob Duffy will replace Williamson and Southee in India.
Monday, January 9, 10.30pm: First ODI v Pakistan; Karachi
Wednesday, January 11, 10.30pm: Second ODI v Pakistan; Karachi
Friday, January 13, 10.30pm: ODI v Pakistan; Karachi
Wednesday, January 18, 9pm: First ODI v India; Hyderabad
Saturday, January 21, 9pm: Second ODI v India; Raipur
Tuesday, January 24, 9pm: Third ODI v India; Indore
© 2023 Stuff Limited
